Speculation on fractal based programming language

We flew east out of Panama City, and I looked down on the faceted green hills of the Cordillera de San Blas, perhaps for the last time.  In the sky were statistically similar puffs of white cumulus cloud.  Naturally, I was thinking of fractals.

I had spent the past few days coding technical analysis indicators in Python, which reminded me of coding same in C#.  This, in turn, reminded me that although the TA community talks a lot about geometric repetition, we have yet to invent a single fractal indicator, much less a trading strategy.

I write my trading strategies in C# on the MultiCharts platform.  Its procedures for time series data look a lot like the vector-oriented syntax of Python.  Here is how to do Bollinger bands in each:

  • StandardDeviationCustom(length, devs)
  • df[price].rolling(length).std() * devs

I have to admit not having much intuition about vector operations.  Matrices and summations just look like for loops to me – clearly an obstacle to the proper appreciation of Python.  I have worked with SAS and SYSTAT, though, so Python at the command prompt seems natural.

What I noticed with the Python exercise is that the classic TA indicators were designed with an iterative mindset, reflecting the programming languages of the day – Sapir’s theory, again – and so I imagine that the reason we have no fractal indicators is that our language can’t express them.

Here are some basic things I would expect from a fractal-oriented programming language:

  • Create a dataset from a generator function
  • Derive fractal metrics, like the Hausdorff dimension
  • Compare two datasets for statistical similarity
  • Compare a dataset to subsets of itself

Admittedly, I have only a cursory notion of how this would work.  That’s why this piece has “speculation” in the title.  Meanwhile, I will continue plugging away in C# and Python.

All about Surcharges

Now here is an article for specialists only.  Menu system developers must know how to correctly acquire and present service contract rates, and surcharges are the most difficult feature.  Integrators and product providers also struggle with this, and I am writing today in hopes of establishing some industry norms.

We start with surcharge policy, from the provider’s perspective, and then data transfer and presentation issues for the menu system.

A surcharge represents an ad hoc increase to the claims risk, and therefore the price, of a service contract.  It lies outside the conventional pricing model, which is:

  • Risk Class – it costs more to service a Camry than a Corolla
  • Coverage – which parts and services are covered
  • Term – contract duration in months and miles
  • Deductible – claims risk is mitigated by a higher deductible

A surcharge is an extra feature tacked on to the pricing model.  For instance, the provider might want an extra $200 to cover a vehicle having a modified suspension, a turbocharger, or four-wheel drive, or if the customer intends to use the vehicle commercially.

Adding a flat dollar amount to the price is straightforward, but not especially accurate from a claims perspective.  That turbocharger will grow more risky as time goes on, so it is smart to have the surcharge amount increase with the term.

Note that you do not need to stipulate a four-wheel drive surcharge for Subaru.  They are all four-wheel drive, and so you can account for this risk in the vehicle classification.  Fixed (irremovable) features of the vehicle may be treated either as surcharges or risk classes.  In this example, four-wheel drive is handled as a class code bump.

Likewise, deductibles can be treated as surcharges.  This is an efficient way to represent them in a printed rate guide, where a choice of deductibles would mean many additional pages.  In the example below, the rate guide is printed with a base deductible of $50 and four more as surcharges.  Note that the surcharge amounts vary with the term mileage.

Warranty Solutions uses a similar approach, except that the surcharge amounts vary with the cost of the base contract.  They reckon that the risk associated with the vehicle, coverage, and term is already reflected in the cost, and so the surcharge should be higher on a higher-cost contract.  In my time as a consultant, I have seen everybody’s rate guide, and every possible way to handle surcharges.

It is important to recognize that a printed rate guide is just one way to represent the provider’s evaluation of risk.  As with Sapir’s theory of language, the provider’s actuary can only evaluate risks that can be expressed by the pricing model.

Where rates are returned via web service, there is no need to treat deductibles as surcharges.  They should be an explicit part of the pricing model, as above.  Where the VIN is supplied as input, likewise, there is no need to specify vehicle surcharges.

Many rate guides distinguish between “mandatory” and “optional” surcharges, but all surcharges are required to be levied where applicable.  Therefore, the usage I prefer is:

  • Mandatory Surcharge – We know it from the VIN, like a turbocharger
  • Optional Surcharge – We have to ask, as with commercial use

The user experience for a mandatory surcharge is simply to notify that we have already applied it to all rates in the web service response.  For optional surcharges, the menu system must provide a checkbox or some other way to apply it.

In either case, it is best for the web service to apply the surcharge to all rates in the response.  This allows for a smaller payload, and no chance for error.  The only reason to send rates both with and without an optional surcharge is if the menu system lacks the ability to request it up front.

Menu systems today already have user controls for the well-known surcharges, like commercial use, lift kit, snowplow, van conversion, warranty preload, synthetic oil, and rental coverage.  As a developer, I don’t like the idea of hardcoding these controls.  I would rather the menu system generate the controls at deal time, using a separate web service to obtain the list.

There is one kind of surcharge that must be included separately in the rate response.  These are additions to coverage which the F&I Manager may upsell at deal time.  The mockup below shows the addition of optional electrical to one grade of coverage, which is included with the higher grade.

Because the F&I Manager may toggle this surcharge dynamically, there is no alternative but to include it in the rate response.  This means an extra branch at the coverage node, assuming a tree structure, or else sprinkle the surcharge among the leaf nodes and make the menu system do the math.

  • Upsell Surcharge – We may choose it dynamically at deal time

Either way, dynamic surcharges will bloat the rate response.  The workaround we used at MenuVantage was to treat them as optional surcharges, above, and ask the F&I Manager to choose prior to rating.  I frankly hate dynamic surcharges, a prejudice from my menu days, but people evidently find them useful.

That about does it for surcharges.  If anyone has anything to add, in the spirit of setting industry norms, please write in.

Worry about Mobility, Continued

This week, we examine the fourth piece of McKinsey’s automotive revolution, shared mobility.  This is really a collection of trends including car sharing, ride hailing, and mass transit.  I will show how to gauge whether a new program has the potential to be disruptive.  But first, let’s dispense with mass transit.

From Munich, you can ride the U-Bahn to the Schnellbahn, and get anywhere in Europe by fast rail.  This is where McKinsey’s analysis shows its European bias.  Europe’s population density is three times that of the United States, and her various rail systems carry twenty times the passengers.

American cities are linked by air, of course, but relatively few have commuter rail systems.  When you deplane at Las Vegas, for example, or Orlando, you are headed for the car rental counter.

“What’s happening in general, millennials, younger people, car ownership in and of itself is not the most important thing.”

When I worked at BMW, twenty years ago, they were already styling themselves a “mobility” company, and not solely a car company.  At the time, that meant mass transit.  If you look at BMW today, their investments tell a different story.  I won’t try to categorize Fair, Shift, Skurt, Scoop, and ReachNow – not today, anyway. Today I want to talk about capacity utilization.

If you’re like most people, you drive your car to and from work, plus errands and recreation.  Let’s call it 20 hours of use for the 112 hours per week you’re awake, or 18%.  In theory, any mobility scheme that increases capacity utilization will cause a proportional decrease in car sales. There is a variety of schemes, known collectively as Mobility as a Service.

“The success of a MaaS provider will be determined by how much utilization they can gain from their accessible fleet.”

Uber is the obvious example.  It increases utilization for the drivers, and reduces the riders’ inclination to buy a car of their own.  I meet people every day who won’t buy a car, or won’t buy a second car, because Uber meets their occasional driving needs.  In major urban areas, people have long gotten by without cars.  The way I see it, Uber has widened this circle out into the suburbs.

Uber will also take a bite out of traditional car rental, as will hourly rental services like Maven. Maven is basically Uber without the driver, good for business travelers who just want to attend their meeting and go back to the hotel.  Business travelers I know will often choose Uber over Hertz, depending on the city.

“Millennials like having an easy process, but they hate commitment,” Bauer said. “I think the next step for leasing has to be no fixed term, or a different way of term.”

Here in Atlanta, we have two subscription car programs, Flexdrive and Clutch.  It is wonderful to live in the nexus of so much new-auto activity.  Flexdrive is a joint venture of Cox Automotive and Holman Auto Group.  You choose from a variety of vehicles, and your monthly subscription includes insurance, maintenance, and roadside assistance.

The average car payment in America is $500.  Depending on the figures you use for gas, insurance, and maintenance, your car costs at least $7 per hour of use.  This may sound fanciful, accounting for the car as a utility, but this is exactly the way a new generation of mobility providers look at it.  A monthly subscription of $500 is the price point advertised by Fair.  Zipcar and Maven hourly rates start at $8.

The chart above shows that car sales per capita have declined, in fits and starts, by about one in six over the last forty years.  This reflects trends like gradually increasing urbanization and longer-lived cars, which are minor worries for our industry.  Increasing utilization, through various forms of renting and sharing, has the potential to be a major worry.

Wanted: eCommerce Product Manager

Gartner Group says “the API is the product.”  I am looking for an experienced product manager who knows what Gartner Group is and why they say that.  The API in question is Safe-Guard’s collection of dealer-facing web services.  This is a topic I have worked on and written about extensively, as here, and now I plan to try the product manager approach.

The successful candidate will have solid product management experience, preferably with an API, and maybe some pragmatic marketing or agile development.  Software development experience a plus.  Self-starter.  Relocation.   Salary commensurate with experience.

How to Worry about Mobility

I was impressed by this article, How to Worry about Climate Change.  It was neither activist nor skeptical, but rather placed the threat in an appropriate policy context.  So, I was inspired to update my earlier post on the “mobility revolution.”

McKinsey has some new research out which, I feel, overstates the case.  The case, as you may recall, is that four trends will come together in some kind of perfect storm:

  • Electrification
  • Connectivity
  • Autonomous driving
  • Shared mobility

The best research on mobility is still this series of papers from the BCG.  Like me, BCG is reserved about the U.S. market.  I strawman McKinsey a little by focusing on U.S. car dealers.  Their focus is on manufacturers, with a European orientation.

The right way to worry about mobility is to ignore the interaction effects, and look at each trend individually.  This is where I differ from McKinsey.  They model three different outcomes – small, medium, and large – for each of the four trends.  This gives them eighty-one different scenarios to evaluate (consultants love this stuff).

Electric Cars

My local BMW dealer has a lot full of i3s and i8s.  Electric cars won’t change auto retail at all – service, obviously, but not sales.  This “revolution” only affects dealers if Tesla succeeds in doing it without a dealer network.  From my perspective, not having a dealer network is a weakness, and a sign that the company lacks confidence in its product.

Connectivity

It turns out Jacques Nasser was right.  Kids today will ride in a hamster box as long as it has satellite, wireless, navigation, and a sound system.  Gone is my generation’s enthusiasm for hemi heads and dual overhead cams.  No one drives a stick anymore, and the steering wheel will be next (see below).

Connectivity will change auto retail the same way electric cars will – new features to sell and service.  I have the BMW connectivity app on my iPhone.  Connectivity in terms of telematics will open up new opportunities for service retention, as I described here.  There are new opportunities in F&I, and even lot management, as people invent more things to plug into the OBD port.

Autonomous Cars

I am deeply skeptical about self-driving cars.  People who promote them tend to focus on SAE level four, and overlook the greater challenge of full autonomy.  I see self-driving in limited contexts, like self-parking and advanced cruise control.  Check out BMW’s lane-departure technology.  This is cool stuff, and what it means to car dealers is … more expensive cars!

Remember that the nightmare scenario for self-driving cars only occurs when the cars are smart enough to be widely shared, i.e., robot Uber drivers.  A car that can autonomously drive the kids to school is years and years away.

A close examination of the technologies required to achieve advanced levels of autonomous driving suggests a significantly longer timeline; such vehicles are perhaps five to ten years away.

Like “catastrophic anthropogenic global warming,” that date keeps moving out as we approach it.  In 2012, Sergey Brin said self-driving cars would be widely available by 2018.  In 2016, Mark Fields said no steering wheel by 2021.  McKinsey, in any year, always says, “five to ten years from now.”  For a clear-eyed look at the challenges, see here.  For more about luxury driver assistance see here.

That about does it for my deconstruction of three mobility trends that should not worry car dealers.  Next week, I’ll report on that fourth one.  Now that I am living in a big, modern metropolis, I can see shared mobility first hand.  I may not even need a second car.

Wanted: Experienced F&I Trainer

I am in the process of creating an eCommerce department for Safe-Guard.  Regular readers know that I specialize in creating new organizations, and my record is pretty good.  The training function, which is also a kind of sales function, is likely to grow.  So, this is an opportunity to get in early.

The job is to train all of the F&I managers who sell products administered by Safe-Guard, and ensure they know how to present them properly using any of the top ten menu systems.  For one person, at least to begin with, this will be a challenge.  We are in thousands of dealerships.

Thus, the successful candidate must have the skill and temperament to leverage the resources of our affiliated agents, vendors, manufacturers, and dealer groups.  Self-starter.  Travel.  Proficiency in F&I procedures and software, notably menu systems.  Salary commensurate with experience.

How to Go Freelance

41tQiXO81hLSince I posted Why I Freelance a few months ago, people have been asking me for advice on how to get started.  So, this week I fulfill a promise to share some pointers.

There are probably books on this, and they’re probably better organized, but here is my experience.  We start with the easy stuff:

  • Form a legal entity. I have tried various forms over the years, including a Latin American SA.  What I recommend for you is an LLC.  This leaves you free to elect C- or S-Corp tax status later – and you don’t need a lawyer.  You can form an LLC online for a few hundred dollars.
  • Draft a consulting services agreement. For this, you will need a good lawyer.  It is always better if you can send a prospective client your standard contract.  This frames the negotiation in terms favorable to you.  Pay special attention to the non-compete terms.
  • Find a good accountant. If you are good at tax prep, and using a “disregarded entity,” you may be able to do the firm’s returns on your own.  Otherwise, seek professional help. Pro tip: pay Uncle Sam quarterly to avoid a surprise at tax time.  Canadian pro tip: keep your HST receipts in a separate account.
  • Choose a tax status. The last time I was incorporated in the U.S., I used an S-Corp.  This is a hassle because you have to deal with payroll tax.  It was handy for me because I was able to have my wife on the payroll.  The Canadian version of this is called “income splitting.”
  • Set up a web site. No, don’t look at mine.  It’s overdue for an update, and this here blog is my main presence online.  Depending on how you plan to market yourself (see Networking Tips for Consultants) you will spend more or less money on the web site – and you may have to learn about SEO.
  • Open new bank accounts, and obtain a corporate credit card. Using the corporate card is an easy way to keep your business expenses separate, and it’s a source of working capital.  When I started at GMAC, it was months before I got paid, and I had accrued thousands of dollars in expenses.
  • Learn how to use QuickBooks. As you can tell by now, keeping the books is a big part of running your own business.  You will need to keep track of your accounts, and payroll, and 1099s, and present your clients with professional-looking (and accurate) invoices.
  • Obtain health insurance. I can’t help you here.  I haven’t lived in the U.S. since Obamacare took effect.  I understand it’s expensive.  At present, I have an international Blue Cross policy.  Depending on your tax status, this is deductible on either your business or your personal return.
  • Plan your budget. Figure out how much income you need to pay the bills, and then figure out how you can earn that much – after taxes – assuming you are on the beach for three months of the year.  That’s a sardonic Big Six expression, “on the beach.”  It does not mean happy hour in Playa Bonita.
  • Identify your prospective clients, as specifically as possible, and where they’re located. Unless you have a versatile skill set and live in a high-demand area – developing software in Seattle, for instance – you will be on the road.  I could write a whole ‘nother article about living on the road.

I presented the easy stuff in a short list that you can print out and check off.  Now, the hard question is, why should somebody buy what you’re selling – and for how much?

As of this writing, I know that I can rent a good software developer for about a hundred dollars an hour, and down to $65 for newbies.  The rental agency may keep up to 25% of that, which is not the scam it sounds like once you consider they have to do all the stuff on that list – plus find the gigs.

If you can possibly manage it, work under contract for whatever agency serves your trade – they’re ubiquitous – and learn everything you can about how they do business.  Learn how they handle sales, contracts, billing, payroll, benefits, beach time, and something called “realization.”

Your situation will depend on how old you are, and where you are in life.  The best way to start is with a firm, while you’re young, and before you have kids.  Consulting can be demanding.  If you have a family, I recommend keeping your day job, and then picking it up after the kids are grown.  I know a bunch of successful “mature” consultants.

I was fortunate to start in a Big Six firm (there are four now) that taught me how to manage clients, how to sell an engagement, and how to write a statement of work.  I had classroom training, role playing, one-on-one instruction, and a whole lot of hard knocks.  That early experience was priceless – and I can’t distill it into a blog post, sorry.

The good news is that I was a lousy staff consultant.  All of this stuff is trainable.  I hope these few pointers from me will help you to make the transition.  On the other hand, if you’re having second thoughts – that’s valuable too.  It’s not for everybody.