Worry about Mobility, Continued

This week, we examine the fourth piece of McKinsey’s automotive revolution, shared mobility.  This is really a collection of trends including car sharing, ride hailing, and mass transit.  I will show how to gauge whether a new program has the potential to be disruptive.  But first, let’s dispense with mass transit.

From Munich, you can ride the U-Bahn to the Schnellbahn, and get anywhere in Europe by fast rail.  This is where McKinsey’s analysis shows its European bias.  Europe’s population density is three times that of the United States, and her various rail systems carry twenty times the passengers.

American cities are linked by air, of course, but relatively few have commuter rail systems.  When you deplane at Las Vegas, for example, or Orlando, you are headed for the car rental counter.

“What’s happening in general, millennials, younger people, car ownership in and of itself is not the most important thing.”

When I worked at BMW, twenty years ago, they were already styling themselves a “mobility” company, and not solely a car company.  At the time, that meant mass transit.  If you look at BMW today, their investments tell a different story.  I won’t try to categorize Fair, Shift, Skurt, Scoop, and ReachNow – not today, anyway. Today I want to talk about capacity utilization.

If you’re like most people, you drive your car to and from work, plus errands and recreation.  Let’s call it 20 hours of use for the 112 hours per week you’re awake, or 18%.  In theory, any mobility scheme that increases capacity utilization will cause a proportional decrease in car sales. There is a variety of schemes, known collectively as Mobility as a Service.

“The success of a MaaS provider will be determined by how much utilization they can gain from their accessible fleet.”

Uber is the obvious example.  It increases utilization for the drivers, and reduces the riders’ inclination to buy a car of their own.  I meet people every day who won’t buy a car, or won’t buy a second car, because Uber meets their occasional driving needs.  In major urban areas, people have long gotten by without cars.  The way I see it, Uber has widened this circle out into the suburbs.

Uber will also take a bite out of traditional car rental, as will hourly rental services like Maven. Maven is basically Uber without the driver, good for business travelers who just want to attend their meeting and go back to the hotel.  Business travelers I know will often choose Uber over Hertz, depending on the city.

“Millennials like having an easy process, but they hate commitment,” Bauer said. “I think the next step for leasing has to be no fixed term, or a different way of term.”

Here in Atlanta, we have two subscription car programs, Flexdrive and Clutch.  It is wonderful to live in the nexus of so much new-auto activity.  Flexdrive is a joint venture of Cox Automotive and Holman Auto Group.  You choose from a variety of vehicles, and your monthly subscription includes insurance, maintenance, and roadside assistance.

The average car payment in America is $500.  Depending on the figures you use for gas, insurance, and maintenance, your car costs at least $7 per hour of use.  This may sound fanciful, accounting for the car as a utility, but this is exactly the way a new generation of mobility providers look at it.  A monthly subscription of $500 is the price point advertised by Fair.  Zipcar and Maven hourly rates start at $8.

The chart above shows that car sales per capita have declined, in fits and starts, by about one in six over the last forty years.  This reflects trends like gradually increasing urbanization and longer-lived cars, which are minor worries for our industry.  Increasing utilization, through various forms of renting and sharing, has the potential to be a major worry.

Wanted: eCommerce Product Manager

Gartner Group says “the API is the product.”  I am looking for an experienced product manager who knows what Gartner Group is and why they say that.  The API in question is Safe-Guard’s collection of dealer-facing web services.  This is a topic I have worked on and written about extensively, as here, and now I plan to try the product manager approach.

The successful candidate will have solid product management experience, preferably with an API, and maybe some pragmatic marketing or agile development.  Software development experience a plus.  Self-starter.  Relocation.   Salary commensurate with experience.

How to Worry about Mobility

I was impressed by this article, How to Worry about Climate Change.  It was neither activist nor skeptical, but rather placed the threat in an appropriate policy context.  So, I was inspired to update my earlier post on the “mobility revolution.”

McKinsey has some new research out which, I feel, overstates the case.  The case, as you may recall, is that four trends will come together in some kind of perfect storm:

  • Electrification
  • Connectivity
  • Autonomous driving
  • Shared mobility

The best research on mobility is still this series of papers from the BCG.  Like me, BCG is reserved about the U.S. market.  I strawman McKinsey a little by focusing on U.S. car dealers.  Their focus is on manufacturers, with a European orientation.

The right way to worry about mobility is to ignore the interaction effects, and look at each trend individually.  This is where I differ from McKinsey.  They model three different outcomes – small, medium, and large – for each of the four trends.  This gives them eighty-one different scenarios to evaluate (consultants love this stuff).

Electric Cars

My local BMW dealer has a lot full of i3s and i8s.  Electric cars won’t change auto retail at all – service, obviously, but not sales.  This “revolution” only affects dealers if Tesla succeeds in doing it without a dealer network.  From my perspective, not having a dealer network is a weakness, and a sign that the company lacks confidence in its product.

Connectivity

It turns out Jacques Nasser was right.  Kids today will ride in a hamster box as long as it has satellite, wireless, navigation, and a sound system.  Gone is my generation’s enthusiasm for hemi heads and dual overhead cams.  No one drives a stick anymore, and the steering wheel will be next (see below).

Connectivity will change auto retail the same way electric cars will – new features to sell and service.  I have the BMW connectivity app on my iPhone.  Connectivity in terms of telematics will open up new opportunities for service retention, as I described here.  There are new opportunities in F&I, and even lot management, as people invent more things to plug into the OBD port.

Autonomous Cars

I am deeply skeptical about self-driving cars.  People who promote them tend to focus on SAE level four, and overlook the greater challenge of full autonomy.  I see self-driving in limited contexts, like self-parking and advanced cruise control.  Check out BMW’s lane-departure technology.  This is cool stuff, and what it means to car dealers is … more expensive cars!

Remember that the nightmare scenario for self-driving cars only occurs when the cars are smart enough to be widely shared, i.e., robot Uber drivers.  A car that can autonomously drive the kids to school is years and years away.

A close examination of the technologies required to achieve advanced levels of autonomous driving suggests a significantly longer timeline; such vehicles are perhaps five to ten years away.

Like “catastrophic anthropogenic global warming,” that date keeps moving out as we approach it.  In 2012, Sergey Brin said self-driving cars would be widely available by 2018.  In 2016, Mark Fields said no steering wheel by 2021.  McKinsey, in any year, always says, “five to ten years from now.”  For a clear-eyed look at the challenges, see here.  For more about luxury driver assistance see here.

That about does it for my deconstruction of three mobility trends that should not worry car dealers.  Next week, I’ll report on that fourth one.  Now that I am living in a big, modern metropolis, I can see shared mobility first hand.  I may not even need a second car.

Wanted: Experienced F&I Trainer

I am in the process of creating an eCommerce department for Safe-Guard.  Regular readers know that I specialize in creating new organizations, and my record is pretty good.  The training function, which is also a kind of sales function, is likely to grow.  So, this is an opportunity to get in early.

The job is to train all of the F&I managers who sell products administered by Safe-Guard, and ensure they know how to present them properly using any of the top ten menu systems.  For one person, at least to begin with, this will be a challenge.  We are in thousands of dealerships.

Thus, the successful candidate must have the skill and temperament to leverage the resources of our affiliated agents, vendors, manufacturers, and dealer groups.  Self-starter.  Travel.  Proficiency in F&I procedures and software, notably menu systems.  Salary commensurate with experience.

How to Go Freelance

41tQiXO81hLSince I posted Why I Freelance a few months ago, people have been asking me for advice on how to get started.  So, this week I fulfill a promise to share some pointers.

There are probably books on this, and they’re probably better organized, but here is my experience.  We start with the easy stuff:

  • Form a legal entity. I have tried various forms over the years, including a Latin American SA.  What I recommend for you is an LLC.  This leaves you free to elect C- or S-Corp tax status later – and you don’t need a lawyer.  You can form an LLC online for a few hundred dollars.
  • Draft a consulting services agreement. For this, you will need a good lawyer.  It is always better if you can send a prospective client your standard contract.  This frames the negotiation in terms favorable to you.  Pay special attention to the non-compete terms.
  • Find a good accountant. If you are good at tax prep, and using a “disregarded entity,” you may be able to do the firm’s returns on your own.  Otherwise, seek professional help. Pro tip: pay Uncle Sam quarterly to avoid a surprise at tax time.  Canadian pro tip: keep your HST receipts in a separate account.
  • Choose a tax status. The last time I was incorporated in the U.S., I used an S-Corp.  This is a hassle because you have to deal with payroll tax.  It was handy for me because I was able to have my wife on the payroll.  The Canadian version of this is called “income splitting.”
  • Set up a web site. No, don’t look at mine.  It’s overdue for an update, and this here blog is my main presence online.  Depending on how you plan to market yourself (see Networking Tips for Consultants) you will spend more or less money on the web site – and you may have to learn about SEO.
  • Open new bank accounts, and obtain a corporate credit card. Using the corporate card is an easy way to keep your business expenses separate, and it’s a source of working capital.  When I started at GMAC, it was months before I got paid, and I had accrued thousands of dollars in expenses.
  • Learn how to use QuickBooks. As you can tell by now, keeping the books is a big part of running your own business.  You will need to keep track of your accounts, and payroll, and 1099s, and present your clients with professional-looking (and accurate) invoices.
  • Obtain health insurance. I can’t help you here.  I haven’t lived in the U.S. since Obamacare took effect.  I understand it’s expensive.  At present, I have an international Blue Cross policy.  Depending on your tax status, this is deductible on either your business or your personal return.
  • Plan your budget. Figure out how much income you need to pay the bills, and then figure out how you can earn that much – after taxes – assuming you are on the beach for three months of the year.  That’s a sardonic Big Six expression, “on the beach.”  It does not mean happy hour in Playa Bonita.
  • Identify your prospective clients, as specifically as possible, and where they’re located. Unless you have a versatile skill set and live in a high-demand area – developing software in Seattle, for instance – you will be on the road.  I could write a whole ‘nother article about living on the road.

I presented the easy stuff in a short list that you can print out and check off.  Now, the hard question is, why should somebody buy what you’re selling – and for how much?

As of this writing, I know that I can rent a good software developer for about a hundred dollars an hour, and down to $65 for newbies.  The rental agency may keep up to 25% of that, which is not the scam it sounds like once you consider they have to do all the stuff on that list – plus find the gigs.

If you can possibly manage it, work under contract for whatever agency serves your trade – they’re ubiquitous – and learn everything you can about how they do business.  Learn how they handle sales, contracts, billing, payroll, benefits, beach time, and something called “realization.”

Your situation will depend on how old you are, and where you are in life.  The best way to start is with a firm, while you’re young, and before you have kids.  Consulting can be demanding.  If you have a family, I recommend keeping your day job, and then picking it up after the kids are grown.  I know a bunch of successful “mature” consultants.

I was fortunate to start in a Big Six firm (there are four now) that taught me how to manage clients, how to sell an engagement, and how to write a statement of work.  I had classroom training, role playing, one-on-one instruction, and a whole lot of hard knocks.  That early experience was priceless – and I can’t distill it into a blog post, sorry.

The good news is that I was a lousy staff consultant.  All of this stuff is trainable.  I hope these few pointers from me will help you to make the transition.  On the other hand, if you’re having second thoughts – that’s valuable too.  It’s not for everybody.

New Consolidation Stats from NADA

I chose consolidation for the first of my megatrends series, because it’s the least controversial.  Everyone seems to know it’s happening, and the records and rankings in Automotive News are dominated by big groups.

Ten years down the road, we don’t want to be the 13-point dealership group feeling that pain from the larger groups the way the smaller ones are now

This year, for the first time, NADA Data takes a look at consolidation.  Probably the best single number to look at is the ratio of rooftops to dealers, which represents the average number of stores in a dealer group.  This has grown from 1.8 to 2.2 over the last nine years – not exactly a revolution.  I was a little surprised to see such small numbers, but this is an artifact of how NADA presents the data.

NADA, logically enough, presents the number of dealers owning a group of a given size.  I would have preferred to see the number of stores, not owners, in each category.  This is a better reflection of the market coverage.  To show the distinction, I plotted the total count of both rooftops and owners.  You can see that, while the number of rooftops is recovering since 2010, the number of dealers is not.

Next, I recast the data in terms of rooftops.  The number of rooftops belonging to groups of ten or more has almost doubled over the period, from 12.2% to 21.3%.

Below, I have plotted the number of rooftops in three tiers, by size of the dealer group to which they belong.  The 2 to 10 tier has been remarkably stable, numbering roughly 8,200.  The single points have been in steady decline, losing 2,500 over the period.

Dealers know that single points are vulnerable to market shocks and competitive pressure, if for no other reason than being tied to a single make.  On present trends, we can expect them to vanish entirely within ten or fifteen years.

Optimal IQ for Managers is 120

It has now been proved that you can indeed be too smart for your own good, at least in a business context.  New research shows that the optimal IQ for managers is roughly 120.  This theory is based on dividing the bell curve into three regions:

Let’s say that your IQ falls at the point marked above, which happens to be the optimum.  The colored bands show the size of three groups:

  • To the right (blue) are people who are smarter than you. They may like you, but they will not look to you for any difficult decision.
  • To the left (yellow) are people somewhat less smart, within 16 points. They respect your intelligence and look up to you as a leader.
  • To the far left (grey) are people who do not understand you at all. They think you are arrogant and condescending.

The theory is that the optimal IQ for leadership falls at the point where the size of the middle group, minus the size of the smarter group, is greatest.  A little calculus finds this optimum at 1.2 SD, or roughly 120 on the standard IQ scale.  Other theories have generally assumed a continuously positive effect of increasing IQ, but with diminishing returns.

Researchers plotted intelligence scores versus perceived leadership attributes, for a large sample of middle managers at seven multinational companies.  All attributes, like the one shown below, had a maximum value around 30 on the Wonderlic scale, or 120 IQ points.

I have long suspected that medium-bright students, who must struggle to make good grades, end up more successful than the super smart ones who breeze through school.  Throw in some military experience, and you’ve got the perfect employee.

Of course, this is in a corporate context.  It assumes you are working with a reasonably large group of people having normative IQ distribution.  There have been no studies yet on scientists, engineers, or professionals in private practice.

So, if you are languishing in your company’s IT department, maybe you are just too smart to be a manager.  I’ll see you at the Star Trek convention.